Wells Sees 60-70% Loss Severity in Option-ARMs

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Research by Wells Fargo projects a high rate of failure in Option ARMs over the next several years, but it does not expect this to have a significant impact on home price appreciation. While foreclosure sales are expected to peak next year, the report authors believe the worst of the damage has.

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Averted loss (mn usd) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1 7 13 19 Total climate risk 2600 mn USD Cost-efcient measures Non-cost-efcient Cost-efcient adaptation Residual loss 2030 Reduced loss per usd invested (usd) china: drought risk to agriculture Not all losses are avoidable, especially those caused by low frequency, high severity events.

The effect of stressed economic conditions on operational risk loss distributions.. Wells Fargo US 8.4 Concealed losses.. (in frequency, severity or both (see e.g. Esterhuysen, Van Vuuren.

Averted loss (mn USD) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1 7 13 19 Total climate risk 2600 mn USD Cost-efcient measures Non-cost-efcient Cost-efcient adaptation Residual loss 2030 Reduced loss per USD invested (USD) China: Drought risk to agriculture Not all losses are avoidable, especially those caused by low frequency, high severity events.

The slipping performance was pronounced in pay-option adjustable-rate mortgages (option ARMs), pushing revised loan loss severities in this sector higher than that of subprime.

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Calculated Risk: WSJ: Option ARM Defaults Rising – Nearly 61% of option ARMs originated in 2007 will eventually default, according to a recent analysis by Goldman Sachs. If 61% of the $750 billion in option arms default, and with a 50% loss severity, the losses to lenders will be about $225 billion – far less than for subprime, but still a huge problem.

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